What is a Forecast & Pacing Model?

A forecast & pacing model is a data-driven tool used by growth marketing teams to predict future performance and track real-time progress toward acquisition goals. This model helps teams stay on target by providing a structured approach to both long-term forecasting and short-term pacing of marketing performance.

The GrowthPair Forecast & Pacing Model was designed to help teams:

1. Forecast how paid acquisition and growth metrics will trend month-over-month based on performance targets.
2. Monitor daily pacing across growth channels to ensure spending and conversions are tracking toward monthly goals.

By integrating key performance indicators, this model provides a clear picture of expected growth and helps teams adjust strategies in real time.

Why is forecasting and pacing important?

Growth teams operate in a dynamic environment where budgets, performance metrics, and conversion rates fluctuate. Without a structured forecasting and pacing approach, teams risk overspending, underspending, or missing targets due to unexpected trends.

A forecast & pacing model helps teams:

• Align spend and performance expectations with company goals.
• Identify early warning signs if a channel is underperforming.
• Ensure daily, weekly, and monthly budgets are deployed effectively.
• Optimize conversion funnels by understanding trends in key metrics.

By tracking both projected and real-time performance, marketing teams can make proactive decisions instead of reacting too late.

How does the GrowthPair Forecast & Pacing Model work?

The model incorporates key performance metrics that can be adjusted based on industry, company goals, and historical trends. However, it generally includes:

Spend – Budget allocated to paid acquisition.

Link Clicks – Traffic driven from ads.

CPC (Cost Per Click) – Efficiency of driving traffic.

Leads / Sign-ups / Purchases – Conversion events at different funnel stages.

CPL (Cost Per Lead) – Efficiency of lead generation.

CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) – Overall cost to acquire a paying customer.

Conversion Rates – Percentage of users moving through funnel steps.

Two Core Functions of the Model:

Forecasting: Uses historical data and targets to project future growth trends, helping teams understand what they need to achieve each month.

Pacing: Provides daily tracking of spend and performance, ensuring marketing efforts are on course to meet monthly goals.By monitoring daily pacing and long-term forecasts, teams can make informed budget adjustments, reallocate spend, and optimize campaigns before it's too late.

Who is responsible for forecasting and pacing?

Effective forecasting and pacing require coordination between multiple teams to ensure accurate modeling and alignment with business goals:

Growth & Performance Marketers – Own the execution and ensure campaigns are tracking toward forecasts.

Finance Teams – Align marketing forecasts with broader financial planning.

CMOs / Growth Leads – Set high-level targets and oversee adjustments based on market conditions.

The Forecast & Pacing Model gives marketing teams a structured way to predict growth and monitor daily progress with precision. Download the model now and take control of your acquisition forecasting and pacing.

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